Abstract. S3T (Stochastic Structural Stability Theory) employs a closure at second order to obtain the dynamics of the statistical mean turbulent state. When S3T is implemented as a coupled set of equations for the streamwise mean and perturbation states, nonlinearity in the dynamics is restricted to interaction between the mean and perturbations. The S3T statistical mean state dynamics can be approximately implemented by similarly restricting the dynamics used in a direct numerical simulation (DNS) of the full Navier–Stokes equations (referred to as the NS system). Although this restricted nonlinear system (referred to as the RNL system) is greatly simplified in its dynamics in comparison to the associated NS, it nevertheless self-sustains a turbulent state in wall-bounded shear flow with structures and dynamics comparable to those observed in turbulence. Moreover, RNL turbulence can be analysed effectively using theoretical methods developed to study the closely related S3T system. In order to better understand RNL turbulence and its relation to NS turbulence, an extensive comparison is made of diagnostics of structure and dynamics in these systems. Although quantitative differences are found, the results show that turbulence in the RNL system closely parallels that in NS and suggest that the S3T/RNL system provides a promising reduced complexity model for studying turbulence in wall-bounded shear flows.

Stochastic structural stability theory (S3T) provides analytical methods for understanding the emergence and equilibration of jets from the turbulence in planetary atmospheres based on the dynamics of the statistical mean state of the turbulence closed at second order. Predictions for formation and equilibration of turbulent jets made using S3T are critically compared with results of simulations made using the associated quasi-linear and nonlinear models. S3T predicts the observed bifurcation behavior associated with the emergence of jets, their equilibration, and their breakdown as a function of parameters. Quantitative differences in bifurcation parameter values be- tween predictions of S3T and results of nonlinear simulations are traced to modification of the eddy spectrum which results from two processes: nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions and formation of discrete nonzonal struc- tures. Remarkably, these nonzonal structures, which substantially modify the turbulence spectrum, are found to arise from S3T instability. Formation as linear instabilities and equilibration at finite amplitude of multiple equilibria for identical parameter values in the form of jets with distinct meridional wavenumbers is verified, as is the existence at equilibrium of finite-amplitude nonzonal structures in the form of nonlinearly modified Rossby waves. When zonal jets and nonlinearly modified Rossby waves coexist at finite amplitude, the jet structure is generally found to dominate even if it is linearly less unstable. The physical reality of the manifold of S3T jets and nonzonal structures is underscored by the existence in nonlinear simulations of jet structure at subcritical S3T parameter values that are identified with stable S3T jet modes excited by turbulent fluctuations.