The initial growth of disturbances in a baroclinic flow

The growth of perturbations in a baoclinic flow is examined as an initial value problem. Although the long time asymptotic behavior is dominated by discrete exponentially growing normal modes when they exist, these do not form a complete set and initial intensification is shown to be dependent on the continuous spectrum. The vertical structure of perturbations emerges as an important influence on initial growth, and physically realistic disturbances are shown to grow to amplitudes where nonlinear effect are important before obtaining normal form.

Connection is made with the world of Arnol'd (1965) and Blumen (1968) and the numerical experiments of Simmons and Hoskins (1979). Application of these results to cyclogenisis in geographically fixed areas is suggested and implied constraints on numerical models discussed.